Final 2010 Oscar Predictions

With the 82nd Annual Academy Awards taking place this evening I wanted to get my final thoughts and predictions out. This is one of the more highly anticipated Oscar ceremonies in years. Much of that due the expansion of the Best Picture nominations to include 10 films which has allowed for a few mainstream inclusions that may have not been nominated otherwise. Despite that, it is really only a race between two, with two other extreme dark horses looming. Make sure to check back shortly after the show for reaction and continue on to read the preview.

Best Art Direction
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

The world of Pandora, created for Avatar, was so stunning and inviting that people have actually gotten depressed that it doesn’t exist. I don’t see a competitor here. None of the others offered anything revolutionary.
Best Art Direction Prediction: Avatar

Best Cinematography
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Avatar should have a run of victories with the technical awards. Just like Art Direction it stands out here but more so for the use of 3D. The Hurt Locker would have a chance but I think the technological advances in Avatar will be rewarded in this category.
Best Cinematography Prediction: Avatar

Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

I generally look at the period films as the favorites in this category. The Young Victoria fits and having multiple nominations makes gives it the best chance here. Nine could be the second most likely, as the musical was thought to even be a Best Picture contender before it flamed out with reviewers and at the box office.
Best Costume Prediction: The Young Victoria

Best Documentary
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

I’m going with the film here that had the most mainstream reach. It was the only one that I heard about during the year and has had an emotional impact on those who have seen it. Food, Inc. also has a chance here.
Best Documentary Prediction: The Cove

Best Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

Brilliantly edited for maximum suspense, The Hurt Locker was one of the most tense experiences I’ve ever had watching a movie. That feeling can be largely attributed to the editing. Avatar has to be considered as a possibility as well. Generally the Best Editing award is an indicator of what film will win Best Picture.
Best Editing Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Best Makeup
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

Generally sci-fi or fantasy movies end up winning this category. That makes Star Trek the likely selection, and it is by far the most recognizable of the three which should give it further edge.
Best Makeup Prediction: Star Trek

Best Score
Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

This is a category that Avatar would hope to win, but the sentiment is strongly in favor of Up. The score added to the emotional impact that the film had more than any other.
Best Score Prediction: Up

Best Song
“Almost There,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman
“Down in New Orleans,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman
“Loin de Paname,” Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner & Frank Thomas
“Take It All,” Nine, Maury Weston
“The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart, T-Bone Burnett & Ryan Bingham

I can’t say I particularly care for any of these musical selections, really I thought the song from The Hangover, “Stu’s Song”, got shafted in not being nominated. The winner will likely be the theme from Crazy Heart, which has built its run off the performance of Jeff Bridges and the role music plays in the film.
Best Song Prediction: The Weary Kind

Best Sound Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

No film put as much into the sound editing as Avatar, which faced having to create an entirely new environment while taking into account futuristic elements. The Hurt Locker also makes a play here for its tense nature which was enhanced by the sound, or at times an emptiness, which made you feel like you were right there.
Best Sound Editing Prediction: Avatar

Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Usually the same movie will win both sound awards, but that doesn’t always happen. Avatar will have a shot at winning this but I’m going to split the difference and go with The Hurt Locker. The environment and tense nature of The Hurt Locker, mentioned when discussing the Best Editing category, was made even more so due to the sound mixing.
Best Sound Mixing Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

District 9 and Star Trek both had great effects, there is no doubt about that. Particularly District 9 when considering the relatively low budget which has made it especially worthy of recognition. Despite that it will be Avatar, which clearly changed the landscape of movies forever with its motion capture technology and use of 3D.
Best Visual Effects Prediction: Avatar

Best Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique in Precious
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Penélope Cruz in Nine
Diane Kruger in Inglourious Basterds
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart

Basically a lock, Mo’Nique has won every award this season as a supporting actress. Would be difficult to think of any reason why that would change here.
Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Mo’Nique

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Matt Damon in Invictus
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson in The Messengers

This is no doubt, take it to the bank, going to Christoph Waltz. He has won every award so far and no one else is even in the discussion.
Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Best Actress
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Carey Mulligan in An Education

This is really the only acting award that has any suspense. It could go to either Sandra Bullock or Meryl Streep. Based on the make-up of the Academy I would give the edge here to Streep. The slight favorite according to odds-makers is Bullock.
Best Actress Prediction: Meryl Streep

Best Actor
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

For a time George Clooney appeared to be the front-runner but then Jeff Bridges emerged out of the indie film Crazy Heart and his momentum never slowed. It would be a huge surprise if he did not come away with the Oscar.
Best Actor Prediction: Jeff Bridges

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
Precious
Up in the Air
In the Loop

Here is where Up in the Air gets credit as a fantastic film that just didn’t fit as Best Picture. The Jason Reitman script was was very strong and connected with the audience. The film is centered on relationships and interaction and the script drew out great performances from the entire cast.
Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
The Messenger

This is a close race between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. There is definitely a chance that the Academy looks to reward Quentin Tarantino here, and it was the film heavier on dialgoue. However I believe that the well rounded characters and tension in The Hurt Locker, which was somewhat lacking in Basterds outside of one memorable character, will end up giving it the edge.
Best Original Screenplay Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Best Animated Film
Up
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
Secret of Kells

I really would love for Fantastic Mr. Fox to win here. I thought it was the best animated film and good enough to consider even as one of the final nominees for Best Picture. However there doesn’t seem a plausible scenario where it can topple Up. That movie has gotten way too much support along the way.
Best Animated Prediction: Up

Best Director
James Cameron (Avatar)
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Lee Daniels (Precious)

James Cameron has a shot here to knock off his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow. He won at the Golden Globes but she has won pretty much every other award for director along the way. She would become the first female to ever win Best Director.
Best Director Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
The Blind Side
An Education
Precious

Everything has been building up to the showdown between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. The two films have split the awards handed out at earlier ceremonies pretty evenly. There has even been some controversy, with a producer for The Hurt Locker getting caught emailing voters in an attempt to sway them towards supporting the film over Avatar.

At the same time there has been some backlash directed towards Avatar, a lot of it just jealousy over its insane success, but there may be some who will have placed votes in a manner to try and make sure it does not come out on top. The Hurt Locker would be the biggest beneficiary of that. The two dark horses referenced earlier, Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air, don’t have much of a shot but none of the others have a shot at all.
Best Picture Prediction: The Hurt Locker