Weekend Box Office Predictions 4/9
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Only one new movie this weekend as the comedy Date Night arrives to help balance out the current marketplace which has been dominated by 3D offerings. It has a good chance to top the box office, though it should be a close race with last weekend’s winner Clash of the Titans.
Date Night has the star power to drive a comedy of this nature, with a uniquely strong appeal to both males and females. Steve Carell and Tina Fey are well liked and they both have a history of being able to open films. Carell is the more proven of the two but in 2008 Fey’s Baby Mama opened to $17 million on its way to $60 million. So they both have pull with their respective fan bases and can reach past that.
Reviews have been relatively good considering the lackluster buzz surrounding the film. It currently sits at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes which is respectable. Director Shawn Levy (Night at the Museum, Pink Panther, Cheaper by the Dozen) is known for producing inoffensive and somewhat bland comedies that play well to large audiences. Date Night sits as easily the best rated movie of his career so far and should it hold it would be the only one of his to be “certified fresh” by staying over the 60% threshold. While the positive slant of reviews could provide a slight boost it probably won’t make much of a difference one way or the other as there is no passionate drive behind them. It’s just one of those movies that is seen as semi-enjoyable, and either the person walks out pleased or feels disappointed that it wasn’t more.
The marketing push has only been so-so. There has been a decent flow of advertising though the spots haven’t been especially compelling, and there were no public screenings to create word-of-mouth that would offer the potential to be a break out hit. Date Night will likely take in around $28 million this weekend.
There should be a large drop-off for Clash of the Titans to the area of $25 million. Word of mouth has not been good, especially when it comes to the quality of the 3D conversion. How to Train Your Dragon should continue to hold up very well and pull in $20 million or so in its third weekend. Dragon crossed the $100 million mark on Tuesday.
Opening Predictions
Date Night: $28 million