Weekend Box Office Predictions 3/5

Two new films hit theaters this weekend with Alice in Wonderland and Brooklyn’s Finest. Alice steals many of the 3D screens that have been held by Avatar since its release in December on the weekend that the movie could end up winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

The first big indicator of the long term effect of Avatar on the box office arrives with Alice in Wonderland, the first 3D offering since the biggest movie of all-time changed audience expectations. The classic fairy tale finds a young girl lost within a fantasy land and is directed by Tim Burton. One of the biggest draws in Hollywood, Johnny Depp, stars as the “Mad Hatter”.

Reports are the 3D in Alice is not very impressive, it was converted rather than filmed in 3D, and I have to wonder how the audience will react to not getting the “Avatar experience” that they might be expecting. Still, the story and design of the film will appeal to all audiences as families especially make their way out to see it. The increase ticket price for 3D screenings will provide a boost to its take. There is no doubt that moviegoers have been waiting for the next big thing to hit the box office and Alice is it.

Reviews have been incredibly mixed. It is sitting at 54% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the split is heavy with some reviewers loving it and others absolutely hating it. That is pretty typical of a Tim Burton film. It shouldn’t damage its prospects at all as the movie is basically critic proof. Word of mouth will have much bigger impact in the weeks to come. The most comparable movie is probably Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which opened to $56.2 million back in 2006, but did not have the benefit of the new 3D rage. Alice in Wonderland could draw $70 million this weekend.

Brooklyn’s Finest, an R rated cop drama, features an ensemble cast of recognizable names and familiar theme. The story follows three New York Police officers as they wrestle with temptation, loyalty, and duty while attempting to uphold the law and deal with the pressures of the job. The cast includes Ethan Hawke, Don Cheadle, Richard Gere, and Wesley Snipes while being directed by Antoine Fuqua. With all that comes a feel similar to Training Day.

Reviews have not been good but, like Alice, that probably won’t have much of an effect on its first weekend potential. This will be a destination movie for some, and not even a consideration for others. Promotion has been relatively heavy and awareness for those who might be interested in this type of movie is high. Brooklyn’s Finest should finish up with a solid $13 million.

Opening Predictions
Alice in Wonderland: $70 million
Brooklyn’s Finest: $13 million