Weekend Box Office Predictions 2/19

Only one new film enters the marketplace this weekend as Shutter Island looks to capture the top spot at the box office. If you haven’t already make sure to check out my review. It will have to fend off the strong performers from last weekend but seems primed to take away the crown from Valentine’s Day.

When Shutter Island was moved back from October of last year it was done to give it breathing room, place the studio in a position to fully support it (including a potential Oscar run), and free up Leonardo DiCaprio to promote it as he has been busy filming Inception. It looks like the decision could pay off given the lack of direct competition. The most comparable film out would likely be The Wolfman, and that should see a large drop-off from last weekend.

While Shutter Island probably would have been nominated for Best Picture if it had released last year, it could very well be on the minds of voters at the end of this year. Reviews are trending positive, with the good reviews being overwhelmingly positive, but there is a split there keeping it from being an automatic recommendation. Better reviews may have provided a boost, but most moviegoers will recognize Scorsese and DiCaprio and feel confident in seeing the film.

The marketing has been strong with Shutter being presented with a mysterious nature and tone. Fans of the novel that it is based on are also likely to support the movie by coming out on opening weekend as well. The most natural comparison in terms of box office potential would certainly be The Departed which opened to $26.9 million four years ago. I’m looking for Shutter to surpass that given the current market conditions and high level of awareness. For an R rated movie it is tracking very well in all demographics.

Holdovers will see steep drops due to poor word of mouth and the draw to the theaters based on the two holidays that extended through a four day weekend. Valentine’s Day could fall to about $21 million, Percy Jackson close to $20 million, and The Wolfman to about $12 million.

Opening Predictions
Shutter Island: $34 million