Weekend Box Office Predictions 2/12

Last weekend Avatar was finally toppled from its reign as box office champ by a movie directed at young females and couples. This weekend it could end up in fourth place as three new movies arrive that appeal to different audiences and have the potential to open with over $20 million.

Valentine’s Day is packed with more stars than any movie in memory. The ensemble cast includes Julia Roberts, Jamie Foxx, Jessica Alba, Jessica Biel, Bradley Cooper, Ashton Kutcher, Jennifer Garner, Anne Hathaway, and many more recognizable faces. The movie isn’t going to do well just because of the stars but maybe even more so due to the the holiday theme which will be ideal for couples looking for a movie to see together.

Marketing has been heavy to take advantage of all the factors in its favor and the terrible reviews its been getting probably won’t matter much at all. It does have Dear John as competition which could cut into its potential somewhat but it shouldn’t do much harm. The studio is so confident, and pleased with the relatively low budget (under $50 million), that the sequel is already being worked on. Valentine’s Day should open with about $36 million.

Another book series to make its way to the big screen with franchise potential is here with Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief. Though it is the best reviewed new film this weekend it’s only mixed right at about 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is more of a family film with a PG rating which fills a void right now. Being a popular book series gives it an edge as fans will likely be going out to see it. Percy Jackson has the potential to make about $24 million and hold up well in coming weeks.

After numerous delays, having been pushed back from its originally announced release of April 2009, The Wolfman finally has arrived. Because of the delays and the news of multiple edits within the last couple months it carries with it a bad buzz that is difficult to shake. Reviews have been mediocre to poor which doesn’t help to change that perception. The movie has some great actors in Benecio Del Toro, Anthony Hopkins, and Hugo Weaving but their names are probably not enough to sell it to a large audience. The Wolfman could take in $20 million.

Opening Predictions
Valentine’s Day: $36 million ($50 Four Day)
Percy Jackson: $24 million ($36 Four Day)
The Wolfman: $20 million ($26 Four Day)