Weekend Box Office Predictions 2/5

Could this finally be the weekend that Avatar gets knocked out of the top spot? Some are looking at Dear John to do just that as it appeals to a younger female crowd that may not be as interested in the festivities surrounding the Super Bowl. However I see Avatar staying atop for a final time this weekend despite yet another strong opening from a challenger. Also entering the market is the John Travolta action pic From Paris With Love.

Dear John may not be a movie familiar to the masses but the target audience will certainly be aware of it. Fans of the Nicholas Sparks novel will drive early ticket sales and the romantic theme could draw out couples. Reviews have been poor but that is unlikely matter much if at all to those who are looking forward to it. Dear John could come away with $15 million this weekend.

Generally studios would avoid releasing an action movie on Super Bowl weekend. The Sunday gross will take a significant hit but that could just shift audiences more to Friday and Saturday if there the interest was there. Problem is there really isn’t any buzz around From Paris With Love. It has a similar feel to Taken which is not surprising since it is from the same director. The difference is that movie had a great marketing hook which Paris is lacking. A $12 million opening is a reasonable expectation for From Paris With Love.

Opening Predictions
Dear John: $15 million
From Paris With Love: $12 million