Weekend Box Office Predictions 1/29

This could be the third straight week where a movie opens strong but still can’t unseat Avatar which will probably remain in the top spot as it has for all seven weekends it has been out. Mel Gibson headlines a movie for the first time since 2002 with Edge of Darkness while When in Rome goes for the light romantic comedy crowd.

Could Edge of Darkness unseat Avatar? The R rated thriller has a shot but it doesn’t seem likely. There is definitely interest in seeing Mel Gibson again as he hasn’t starred in a movie since Signs. The best comparison here is probably to Taken which opened in January last year with $25 million. However that movie had a much slicker marketing campaign and really targeted young males well. Reviews have been decent but probably not enough to push additional people out to the theater. Edge of Darkness could take in about $18 million this weekend.

One of my favorites Kristen Bell stars in When in Rome, a fairly harmless romantic comedy entry. The movie has been screened to audiences over the past few months hoping to pick up word of mouth but it hasn’t seemed to gain much traction from it. Reviews has been poor which is a surprise for a movie that the studio has pushed in early screenings. There is still appeal in this type of movie to the date crowd and there isn’t much in the way of direct competition. When in Rome could open with $12 million.

Opening Predictions
Edge of Darkness: $18 million
When in Rome: $12 million