Weekend Box Office Predictions 1/22

There is little threat to Avatar capturing the crown for the sixth straight weekend at the box office. It should actually see a boost after winning Best Picture at the Golden Globes. New entries include the family pic Tooth Fairy, the supernatural action-thriller Legion, and the medical drama Extraordinary Measures.

No matter how terrible it looks a family targeted film should never be underestimated and having Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson starring only helps. Looking at the opening of comparable movies Race to Witch Mountain made $24.4 million and The Game Plan made $22.9 million. Neither of those were reviewed very well but they were in somewhat better shape than Tooth Fairy. They also had the benefit of being Disney branded films. Incorporating hockey may limit the appeal somewhat but its a family-friendly option that may be tolerable enough for parents. Tooth Fairy could open with $20 million.

Though it takes on more of a supernatural angle biblical theme this is the second straight week with an apocalyptic based movie. The Book of Eli opened strong last week and now Legion enters the fray. The plot is centered on God sending sends his legion of angels to bring on the Apocalypse with a group of humans trying to prevent it with the help of Archangel Michael. Reviews have been weak and having that direct competition hurts its potential. Legion could pull in about $14 million this weekend.

Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser headline Extraordinary Measures. The medical drama is centered on the efforts of a couple to find a researcher who might have a cure for their child’s rare genetic disorder. For a movie such as this to become a hit it would have really needed strong reviews behind it and that hasn’t happened with only 27% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing has allowed for the perception that it is second rate (more of a TV movie) which might not be surprising considering its distributor is CBS Films having never launched a major motion picture before. Extraordinary Measures could come out of the weekend with $7 million.

Opening Predictions
The Tooth Fairy: $20 million
Legion: $14 million
Extraordinary Measures: $7 million