Christmas Weekend Box Office Predictions

A few new big offerings hit theaters in time for Christmas while a few others expand to wide release after limited runs. Sherlock Holmes targets a more adult and action oriented crowd, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel goes right for the younger children, and It’s Complicated hopes to connect with older movie-goers. Up in the Air had a positive run through December and will see how the word-of-mouth carries it while Nine has not been as lucky with the general response or reviews. Despite all these new entries Avatar is primed to finish #1 yet again.

The original Alvin and the Chipmunks surprised with $44 million its opening weekend on the way to making an astounding $217 million. Though it got poor reviews it still caught on with the kids making the follow-up a sure thing. The Squeakquel could draw $46 million over the three day weekend totaling $70 million in the five days of release.

Buzz is high for Sherlock Holmes primarily due to Robert Downey Jr. and while reviews have been positive they haven’t been overwhelming. In my review I stated a belief that word-of-mouth would be mixed and I didn’t get the sense it represents the start of a big franchise. I’m also getting a late feeling it will not open as big as some of the estimates being tossed around. Sherlock Holmes could to be on the way to about $39 million for the weekend.

It’s Complicated gives me a very similar vibe to the bomb from earlier this month Everybody’s Fine. Both offer established stars in an adult setting and the review output on RottenTomatoes is almost identical (47% vs 46%). However It’s Complicated has received more of a marketing push, the story may be found to be more appealing, and it opens on a holiday weekend. Look for it to make about $16 million.

Up in the Air has done extremely well in limited release since first appearing early this month and has increased awareness through that as well as recent awards nominations and wins. It is one of my favorite films of the year (review here) and many others are spreading the word. George Clooney is a draw on his own but in this case he is helped by a great story as well as an excellent supporting cast. Up in the Air could collect $18 million in its first weekend of wide release and should hold up well in coming weeks.

Nine has been out in limited release for only a week and hasn’t built up momentum. The musical originally pegged as an Oscar contender has been getting mediocre to even poor reviews. With so many other appealing films out this looks to be at best a secondary option. Nine would do well to reach $9 million.

Avatar will come out on top again this weekend despite all the challengers. It has held up extremely well over the course of the week and the word-of-mouth is off the charts. It has become an event that everyone has to see. After making $77 million last weekend it could make around $65 million this weekend.

Opening Predictions
Avatar: 65 million
Alvin and the Chipmunks 2: 46 million
Sherlock Holmes: 39 million
Up in the Air: 18 million
It’s Complicated: 16 million
Nine: 9 million