Weekend Box Office Predictions 12/18

The long awaited arrival of Avatar is finally here as it opens today in a record number of 3D and IMAX screens. Playing the role of counter-programming, or depending on perspective being led out to slaughter, is the comedy Did You Hear about the Morgans?

With approximately 2000 3D screens, 178 IMAX screens, and other locations showing the regular 2D print Avatar is primed for a huge opening. It won’t have the same massive screen count of other blockbusters but that could end up adding to the hype with packed houses and tickets difficult to come by. Director James Cameron wanted it primarily in those theaters that could display the advanced technology utilized which means more people will be able to rave about it than maybe if they had seen the regular version. Online advance ticket sales are surpassing those of Star Trek which opened to $75 million over the summer.

One of the biggest advantages that Avatar has that will contribute to its grosses is the increased prices paid for the 3D and IMAX showings. Those tickets can be anywhere from $3-6 more depending on the particular location. The running time of 2 hours 36 minutes will keep most screens to four showings a day which is enough to provide a large opening weekend. In comparison Titanic was limited to three showings per screen because of its length.

Naturally many will look at Titanic, the biggest grossing movie of all time, given that it was James Cameron’s last film. The path it took will likely never be replicated though. It opened to just $28 million but burned on selling out shows for months. It didn’t drop below a $20 million weekend for an astounding 12 weeks. Avatar will open much bigger, have the benefit of the higher ticket prices and more screens. How well it will hold up in the following weeks is the biggest question surrounding it.

Reviews have been mostly positive with many that have been exceedingly enthusiastic. Avatar just got nominated for Best Picture at the Golden Globes. That good word-of-mouth could be an indication of long-term strength. Repeat showings will eventually determine if the movie ends up as one of the biggest of all time. It was crafted to appeal to all demographics and would need women to fall in love with it the same way they did Titanic.

Industry expectations has Avatar making around $80 million this weekend but there are some who have predicted it will even top $100 million. This is a tough one for them to predict as there really hasn’t been anything released with similar circumstances regarding the buzz around the technology and the filmmaker. Avatar would have a great start by pulling in $89 million and I expect it to carry that momentum through awards season.

The other movie isn’t really even worth talking about. Did You Hear about the Morgans? stars Hugh Grant and Sarah Jessica Parker in another generic comedy. Reviews have been horrid as it currently sits at 11% on RottenTomatoes. The release is completely overshadowed by Avatar which should steal most moviegoers that it may have been targeted at. Did You Hear about the Morgans? could make $7 million this weekend.

Opening Predictions
Avatar: $89 million
Did You Hear about the Morgans?: $7 million