Box Office Predictions 12/11

Two new movies open this weekend and at least one of them should topple The Blind Side for the top spot. The animated Disney film The Princess and the Frog targets the younger set while Invictus appeals to an older crowd and hopes to draw support for a potential Best Picture nomination.

In what comes across as a classic Disney animated offering The Princess and the Frog will slant more towards females. That is not necessarily a bad thing but it does limit its potential. It does not release in 3D and is more traditional than the family oriented movies that have become so popular as of late. That being said there is a lot to the Disney name and there is very little direct competition to speak of. For the weekend it could make about $28 million.

For a while now I’ve expected Invictus would struggle to generate a strong box office take. Its subject matter just isn’t overly appealing. It is the true story of Nelson Mandela and his attempt to unite South Africa through the Rugby World Cup in 1995. It will rely on word-of-mouth and awards nominations and that should allow it to have legs…it just won’t have a big opening. The star power is there with Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman just not in a setting that many will feel compelled to run out and see them in. $14 million would be a reasonably good start.

The Lovely Bones opens in limited release. The Peter Jackson film won’t go wide though until January 15th. Up in the Air expands into more markets after having a spectacular per-screen take in the 15 cities it played in last week. It will go wide on Christmas.

Opening Predictions
The Princess and the Frog: 28 million
Invictus: 14 million