Box Office Predictions 12/4

Four new movies that don’t have particularly large expectations hit theaters this weekend. After a few weeks of heavy hitting blockbusters there is a wide array here that are targeting particular factions of moviegoers. The Blind Side will almost certainly capture the top spot for the weekend with New Moon dropping to second. After that the new additions to the market will start falling into place.

Armored is going for the action crowd with a familiar theme of a heist movie. It was not screened to critics until last night so reviews are late coming in but they are unlikely to affect how well it will perform. There is not much in the way of direct competition as Ninja Assassin has pretty much run its course already. Promotion has been relatively strong with frequent TV commercials being seen. The most recent comparison could be Law Abiding Citizen which opened with $21 million but had bigger names involved. Armored could pull in about $11 million through Sunday.

Brothers may have the most wide appeal of the bunch but it will probably build more based on word-of-mouth and potential awards nominations than break out with a big opening weekend. It has the star power of Natalie Portman, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Tobey Maguire and has been getting mixed reviews but slanting towards the positive. The trailer originally drew me in with the contrast between an uplifting story with what turns into a thriller. Despite that and talk of the great performances it has stayed somewhat under the radar. Brothers might make around $8 million this weekend.

Everybody’s Fine is going for an older crowd with a story about a man trying to reunite with his children. Robert De Niro stars with Kate Beckinsale, Drew Barrymore, and Sam Rockwell. Reviews have been average and ultimately it is being viewed as a generic holiday dramedy. Competition for dollars will likely come from the huge hit The Blind Side, holdover Old Dogs, and new entry Brothers. For the weekend it could draw about $6 million.

Transylmania is a spoof comedy that had one of the worst trailers of the year and the commercials haven’t been much better. Not surprisingly critics have not been afforded the opportunity to see it. There is little to no interest out there in this movie and it may not even make the top 10. Look for it to only earn about $2 million.

Out in limited release is Up in the Air which is one of the best films to come out this year. Check out my review here. The movie is expanding to more markets on the 11th and will go wide on Christmas.

Opening Predictions
Armored: 11 million
Brothers: 8 million
Everybody’s Fine: 6 million
Transylmania: 2 million