Box Office Predictions 11/20

Of course the big release this weekend is The Twilight Saga: New Moon. The movie is breaking records for advance sales and is accounting for over 90% of tickets sold for the coming weekend. Opening against it are two family targeted films which may not be the ideal counter-programming but should still draw respectably.

The original Twilight opened with $69.6 million which made it the fifth biggest opening ever in November. New Moon is expected to soar past that and could potentially break the record for the month which is currently $102 million held by Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. Industry expectations on the low side are for $85 million with some analysts looking more towards the century mark. The Twilight fans are rabid and it should not be discounted that many may even see the movie multiple times. Poor reviews will not be a factor. New Moon may not end up breaking that November record but it should make a stunning amount regardless right around $96 million this weekend.

The Blind Side is based on the true story of now Ravens offensive lineman Michael Oher. The studio has been pushing the film with a large number of early screenings and support from family oriented organizations. The Blind Side comes from Disney in the same mold as some of their previous inspirational sports related stories such as The Rookie and Remember the Titans. The Rookie opened with $16 million in 2002 and went on to make $75 million while Titans opened to $20 million and eventually grossed $115 million. The Blind Side may not have a huge opening weekend but this is the type of movie that could be carried on word-of-mouth and draw decently through the holiday season. Those two previous examples showed that very pattern finishing with over five times their opening weekend when the average movie generally closes about three times the opening weekend. The Blind Side should debut with about $15 million.

The animated Planet 51 features the voices of some big names including Dwayne Johnson and Jessica Biel and the story follows an astronaut who arrives on a planet only to find that he is seen as an alien to the inhabitants. There is little competition right now from movies being targeted directly to kids. A Christmas Carol has already been out a few weeks and it presents a tone and visual style that may have been a deterrent anyway. Planet 51 will not be playing on 3D screens though which audiences have been seeking out and in turn has has been boosting box office takes. Planet 51 could open with $13 million and have a strong holiday weekend to follow.

Opening Predictions
New Moon: 96 million
The Blind Side: 15 million
Planet 51: 13 million