Box Office Predictions 11/6/09

This weekend represents the unofficial start to the holiday movie season with the release of four new films that all have their own unique appeal. The first holiday themed movie arrives with A Christmas Carol while the other three look to attract comedy, suspense, or horror crowds. None of the four however are receiving overwhelmingly good reviews.

Yet another retelling of the famous Charles Dickens novel arrives with A Christmas Carol which features the voice of Jim Carrey in the headline role(s). The film looks to appeal to a wide audience though the animation style is not particularly inviting to all. The draw of Carrey will help pull in a big audience despite the decidedly mixed reviews and earnings from 3D theaters will provide a boost. Industry expectations have the film pulling in around 40 million. I think it’ll come in a little lower with 36 million but have decent legs through Thanksgiving.

The next three films could be interchangeable in what order they finish in. The Men Who Stare at Goats has the strongest star power, The Box has the most intriguing plot, and The Fourth Kind may capitalize on the similarities to Paranormal Activity.

George Clooney and Ewan McGregor star in the oddball comedy The Men Who Stare at Goats. There isn’t anything comparable to this movie in theaters right now and the ads have been somewhat amusing. It isn’t exactly the type of film that will draw a lot of people out though especially since reviews have been mixed. Look for The Men Who Stare at Goats to make around 12 million.

Moviegoers have had Paranormal Activity and Saw VI recently which makes the entrance of The Fourth Kind a third option at the box office for horror fans. The commercials have put off a very “Paranormal” vibe which I suspect has been done intentionally. Reviews are poor but that generally doesn’t hurt a movie of this type. The Fourth Kind could make just over 10 million this weekend.

Finally comes The Box from director Richard Kelly. Kelly is best known for writing and directing Donnie Darko as well as Southland Tales. The Box stars Cameron Diaz and presents the dilemma of receiving a million dollars at the cost of a random human life. It is tough to get a read on the movie because it has an interesting concept and a compelling ad campaign. Despite that there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of interest in it and it may need word of mouth to become a hit. Expect The Box to finish the weekend with about 9 million.

Opening Predictions
A Christmas Carol: 36 million
The Men Who Stare At Goats: 12 million
The Fourth Kind: 10.5 million
The Box: 9 million