Box Office Predictions 10/23/09

Halloween arrives a week early at the box office as the now yearly installment of the Saw franchise is released. Saw VI will look to continue the astonishingly consistent performance of the sequels. The best chance of a strong box office pull is presented by releasing this weekend rather than next Friday. If it waited until that close to Halloween it would have a light Saturday audience and only the one day to take advantage of the anticipation of the holiday. Now Saw will likely have a big opening weekend and another strong Friday evening before the interest in the movie vanishes.

The four sequels occupy spots on the top 10 openings of all time in October. They have all pulled in between 30-34 million. Saw VI may finish the weekend with 28 million making it the lowest grossing opener since the original but still a very profitable venture. The seventh and eighth installments are already in development for release over the next two Octobers and will offer something new as they will be in 3D.

Paranormal Activity looks to be the toughest competition that the Saw franchise has faced. This is not a conventional horror movie as it has built up hype through its limited release and slow expansion. It now more than doubles its theaters from the 760 it had last week when it made 20 million. The increase in screens will make it more accessible so there is potential for an even stronger take. However I’m thinking it will come in a little lower because of audience split with Saw. I expect next weekend Paranormal will make more than Saw but this weekend it will finish up behind it with 19 million.

A more traditional family movie enters the fray with Astro Boy. Where the Wild Things are had a good opening weekend but it did not do all that well with the family sector. Astro Boy could take advantage of that as Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs is the only direct competitor in that regard and it has been out for a month now. Reviews have been mixed but leaning positive. Though it has some great voice actors it hasn’t been marketed well enough, doesn’t feature 3D, and doesn’t have enough wide spread appeal to be huge hit. Look for Astro Boy to make about 12 million.

Another attempt to take a popular book series to the big screen is with Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant. Starring John C. Reilly the ads have made it look like a spoof movie and despite the vampire phenomenon there doesn’t seem to be much potential here. Most everyone is waiting for Twilight: The New Moon which is only a month away. Fans of the books are the only ones who will support this. The Vampire’s Assistant may finish the weekend with 7 million.

Amelia is the  final new release this weekend and opens in just about 800 theaters. Hilary Swank stars as Amelia Earhart in the biopic. Industry expectations have been dropping as there just doesn’t seem to be much interest out there. Reviews have also been poor, which definitely hurts the potential of this type of movie. It currently sits at 18% on RottenTomatoes. Amelia will only be able to pull about 5 million by the end of the weekend.

Opening Predictions
Saw VI: 28 million
Astro Boy: 12 million
Vampire’s Assistant: 7 million
Amelia: 5 million