Box Office Predictions 10/2/09

A bunch of new movies hit theaters this weekend that have their own unique appeal. Surprisingly they are all getting decent to great reviews as well. After a few weeks of mediocre offerings this weekend brings something for everyone.

In a world overrun by zombies bands of humans fight for their ability to survive in Zombieland. This isn’t as much a horror movie as it is a comedy however, which is a good thing considering all the recent scary movie fare that has come out. Marketing has been strong and it has great word of mouth going for it right now. It currently sits at a sparkling 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’m expecting a big opening for Zombieland of around 22 million.

Over the summer it has been shown that having the 3D option has a big affect on grosses. Those screens fill up faster and the theaters are charging a few extra dollars per ticket. How much interest there is in re-viewing the Toy Story movies though is in question, especially considering parents may not feel their kids can keep from getting restless in the theater through three hours. The Toy Story double feature may draw about 12 million.

Drew Barrymore debuts as a director in the Ellen Page starring roller derby comedy Whip It. There isn’t much competition from movies that are appeal directly to the female demo, so the opportunity is there for a solid opening. Whip It should make about 10 million.

Ricky Gervais is still looking for a breakout hit as a lead in the US after the failure of Ghost Town last year which opened with only 5 million. This time around the movie looks better and has gotten solid reviews. The Invention of Lying takes place in an alternate universe where everyone is physically unable to lie.  The Invention of Lying could draw about 8 million this weekend.

The latest documentary from Michael Moore rolls out wide but outside of Fahrenheit 9/11 it is rare to see any documentary do a significant amount in the theaters. They may do well over a long period of time but they generally don’t see big openings. Capitalism: A Love Story could make close to 5 million.

With the re-release of Toy Story/Toy Story 2 in 3D expect to see a larger drop to Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs which has come in #1 the last two weeks. Not only is it competition in the family market but it will be stealing many of the 3D screens that Meatballs had been occupying and benefiting from.

Look for a review of Zombieland this weekend!

Opening Predictions
Zombieland: 22 million
Toy Story/Toy Story 2: 12 million
Whip It: 10 million
The Invention of Lying: 8 million
Capitalism: A Love Story: 4.5 million